The term Value Betting definitely caught your eyes before. If you are not a stranger to gambling, you could meet value betting in games like poker or in most casino games. You should not be surprised that value betting relates to sportsbooks as well.
In order to understand the concept, we will need to take a little theory excursus. Literally, value bettings means a bet on a certain value. For instance in poker good players always analyse their moves and calculate the risks while they plan their next action in order to gain maximum possible profit.
Following this concept we will review it related to sports betting. You are always looking for a profit when making another bet, at least you should do. While in poker you play with other players, here you play against a bookmaker and to predict the thoughts of analysts is not an easy task.
Nevertheless, as soon as you gain experience, you will see that some of the events may be underrated by the bookmakers. You have many tools to analyse the condition of most of the teams before certain matches – injured players, possible fatigue rate, psychological ups and downs and so on. Sometimes the odds for certain events might seem to be to high. Of course the analytics that set up the odds will do their best in order to create the maximum profitable odds for the sportsbook, but it still happens that they make mistakes as well.
Basically, this is what value betting is all about. We may call it a strategy of underrated events or a strategy of exaggerated odds, but the meaning stays the same.
All odds are not just numbers, but a part of careful analysis based on numerous factors and every sportsbook has their own specifics when setting up the odds. And bookmakers do make mistakes. It does not happen as often as we would want it to happen, of course.
In order to find the right event and place a bet we need to stick to the following rules:
Rule #1: Value Betting is a long-term strategy.
If you want it all and you want it now, value betting is not for you, really. You need to understand that in order to succeed you need to spend some time analysing and waiting for the right odds to come.
Rule #2: Good analysis.
Bookmaker analytics are not stupid and you will need to be well prepared. Most professional bettors choose only one or maximum two sports to bet on in order to maximise their chances. If you like and follow basketball and think that you know far more than an average fan, you have all the chances to get some good profit out of it. Remember, most people bet counting on their luck, rather than real knowledge. Everyone likes easy money, but not everyone is ready to spend their time learning. You will need to make at least 500 bets using value betting in order to fully understand your knowledge and skills.
Rule #3: Mathematics.
Were you good at maths at school? Well, you need to catch up on it if you wish to improve your analysing skills. There is a simple formula that only looks simple, but it will help you to make a decision before you make a bet.
O x P > 1
O – the odds by the sportsbook
P – your personal odds
The probability theory uses figures between 0 and 1 as you may remember.
For example, you want to bet on a football team, but the bookmaker gives you quite high odds on a win in a next game, lets say 4.5. But you follow the team closely and know that at home it really plays well even against the stronger opponents and all the players are healthy and there is a good atmosphere in a club. In addition to that, the team won 4 out of last 5 home matches. This means that your “P” will be 0.25. Now we use the formula – 4.5 x 0.25 = 1.125. This is above 1 and probably the bookmaker put the odds a bit too high and this team is not so likely to lose the next match. This means we can try and use it as a value bet.
Don’t forget to analyse, use your common sense and mathematical figures and you will reach the success in a long term.